So... what happened to Aegon, exactly?

[Ed. note: Spoilers for House of the Dragon season 2 episode 4 follow. There are also possible spoilers and speculation for the rest of the season, but they’re not informed by the Fire & Blood source material.]

House of the Dragon hasn’t had many true cliffhangers in its brief season and a half on television so far, but it made up for lost time in its latest episode. Here’s our best guess at what comes next for Aegon II Targaryen after his very fiery crash in House of the Dragon season 2 episode 4.

Photo: Ollie Upton/HBO

What if he’s dead?

This one is almost certainly the easier of the two options for poor King Aegon. Going down in the first major battle of a civil war is humiliation enough for a king, but going down on dragonback adds insult to injury — none of which he’ll have to deal with if he’s already kicked the bucket.

As for the rest of the realm, Aegon’s demise certainly wouldn’t mean the end of the war. With no son thanks to Blood and Cheese, and a very important-to-keep precedent establishing patrilineal succession, Aegon’s crown would most likely pass to his brother Aemond upon his death. As we saw in this very battle — and his possible inclination to finish his brother off — Aemond is even more hawkish than his older brother and would be all in for continuing the war.

What if he’s not?

This could go one of two ways. The first is that Aegon could arise from Sunfyre’s fiery crash like a phoenix, somehow entirely unscathed, probably convinced he’s immortal, and ready to lead his civil war with renewed vigor. The one downside is that, given how bad Sunfyre seemed to come out in the fight, Aegon probably wouldn’t have a dragon, which would leave him in the debt of his little brother Aemond, rider of the massive dragon Vhagar. But at least Aegon would still be able to wear his crown and lead his kingdom.

The other possibility is that Aegon could survive, but in pretty awful shape. He almost certainly got burned in the fighting, likely by his own brother’s dragon, and there’s no way most of his bones survived a fall from that height. In this case, Aegon would likely be out of commission for a considerable period of time, leaving Aemond to once again take on the responsibilities of the crown, just not as the crowned king but rather the prince regent — though he’d still be named Protector of the Realm one way or the other.

Image: HBO

No matter what happens to Aegon himself, it does seem like Sunfyre is probably out of commission for good. This isn’t necessarily a death knell of Aegon’s war, but it does certainly hurt his chances in it. There’s no resource in the Dance of Dragons greater than the dragons themselves, and having one less — particularly when that one was big enough to be ridden — is certainly a massive disadvantage.

Any way you slice it, and no matter what happens, Aegon’s decision to ride out into battle in search of honor and a way to upstage his brother couldn’t possibly have gone worse. He’s down one dragon, the most important resource of the war, and that may be the least of his problems. However, whatever the fate of Aegon is, we’ll have to wait until next week to get the resolution to House of the Dragon’s biggest cliffhanger yet.