Spanish GP data: Red Bull’s race pace rivals revealed as favourite status questioned
Red Bull's rivals have appeared close to their race pace in Spain, despite predictions the reigning champions would dominate around Barcelona.
Friday’s free practice for the Spanish Grand Prix has left us with some interesting race pace data. The top teams are keeping all their potential hidden for qualifying and the race, but we can make a slight estimation of the strengths of Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari… and Mercedes.
Within these four teams, it is difficult to define an order because we don’t know the fuel load used by each car in their long-run simulations and, despite the noticeable difference in track temperature, some of the runs were carried out in FP1 and others in FP2.
Spanish GP data: McLaren and Ferrari put up a fight against Red Bull’s race pace
The afternoon runs represented with solid lines in the graphs – had a more ‘grippy’ track after the Formula 2 and Formula 3 qualifying sessions, but also slightly more windy conditions compared to FP1.
That said, the performance of Ferrari and McLaren was positively surprising compared to Red Bull.
Before arriving at Montmelo it looked like Max Verstappen could be handed the winner trophy before he even jumped inside the car. But, as seen in the one-lap pace data from FP2, the story appears to be much more interesting, at least for now.
After an off-colour weekend in Canada and Charles Leclerc’s early problems with his car’s set-up, Carlos Sainz seems to have found the SF-24’s sweet spot from the off.
The Spaniard heads into his final home race in red with plenty of motivation, and the current data puts him on a par with McLaren and ahead of Max Verstappen – whose run was done in FP1 – even with a better behaviour of the soft tyre as his long run developed.
Oscar Piastri seems to have run with a more fuel-efficient car and a shorter run, as the graph shows.
Lando Norris seems to have been in similar fuel load conditions as Red Bull and Ferrari. George Russell’s stint is not very representative as he only completed four laps with older tyres compared to the rest.
The evolution of Norris’ run on the soft from faster to slower times suggests that McLaren may be hiding some more genuine pace and could even spring a surprise on Sunday.
It is important to mention that the Papaya team has scored the most points in the last three races and that is something to take into account as we head into the main part of the weekend.
More key analysis from the Spanish Grand Prix weekend so far
👉 Spanish GP data: Red Bull weak spot discovered as F1 2024 rivals gain ground
In a very tight pack where Red Bull is still very solid, but not quite as strong as expected before landing in Spain, Mercedes seems to be slipping out of the top three, as we can see in the medium tyre runs.
Lewis Hamilton’s pace is nowhere near that of Carlos Sainz, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri, contrary to what was the case in Canada. Not to mention Aston Martin… totally ruled out of the fight for the podium based on the current data trends.
As a result, it will be a difficult weekend for Fernando Alonso in front of his home crowd if the team doesn’t find a quick solution.
Despite having Esteban Ocon with a more fuel unloaded Alpine and evidently pushing the limits of his medium tyre as shown by the lap after lap time drop, it seems that Red Bull with the medium tyre has been very comfortable. Max Verstappen had a slight advantage over Oscar Piastri and Carlos Sainz with the yellow-marked compound.
The Dutchman finished his stint – carried out in FP2 with more grip but also a bit colder track – being able to push and setting the best times of that race simulation at the end of the stint. Undoubtedly, something very encouraging and that continues to place them as favourites, but not with as much advantage as expected at first.
Meanwhile in the fight between McLaren and Ferrari, Piastri completed his stint with older tyres than Sainz and still managed a better average time. That said, with a shorter stint as well.
But it seems that in the first instance the main rival Red Bull is fighting for the win is McLaren with Ferrari slightly behind the Woking-based team. Degradation and tyre management on Sunday will be key to make the difference between these two teams.
The teams have not run much on the hard tyre on Friday. They know it will be a tyre that must be used in the race and as the hardest compound in the range selected by Pirelli for this Grand Prix, it is more critical to test and push the performance and durability limits of the soft and medium in what is expected to be a two-stopper.
Even so, McLaren did a long run with Lando Norris on this set. And clearly, the MCL38 was very low on fuel because the average pace was even better than any long run done with the medium or soft compound. Still, another point in favour of the Woking-based team that can look forward to a solid performance on Sunday.
In conclusion, even if we know that we are in the early stages of the weekend, the race runs seem to put Red Bull as slight favourites again. But McLaren’s pace is particularly encouraging and with signs that it can go further as the sessions progress.
Ferrari also surprised positively after a poor weekend in Canada and Carlos Sainz is looking forward to thrilling the Spanish fans in his last home race before he has to make the leap to a less competitive car from 2025.
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