Spanish GP Quali data predictions: Four teams in contention for pole

After a very interesting Free Practice 3 at the Spanish Grand Prix 2024 with Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc and Max Verstappen separated by less than a tenth of a second, the fight for pole promises to be an interesting one at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.

As the data analysed yesterday showed, Ferrari and McLaren are a real threat to Red Bull and anyone can take P1 in qualifying: Red Bull, Ferrari or McLaren or even Mercedes.

Data suggests close quali coming for Spanish GP

The differences between the teams are minimal and, if nobody has hidden an ace up their sleeve, tyre management along the flying lap will be the key to take pole. Any small mistake can take the drivers from P1 down to P5 or P6.

To analyse this in detail, let’s take a look at the sectors marked by the drivers and more representatively, compare the differences between Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc. The Spaniard set the fastest time before qualifying with a 1:13.013, but he only went purple in Sector 3.

Leclerc was the fastest in Sectors 1 and 2 but he lost almost two tenths of a second to his team-mate in the last sector due to his tyres overheating at the long Turn 12, where he suffered multiple corrections.

Verstappen found the solution to Red Bull’s problems in Sector 2 yesterday. Red Bull changed the Dutchman’s rear wing set-up ahead of FP3 with a higher downforce wing profile and before setting his fastest lap, the mechanics switched back to the old spec front wing and made some set-up adjustments to the rear of his car.

As we saw in yesterday’s data, the Red Bull was flying down the main straight and on the back straight before braking for Turn 10. However, in Sector 2 it was losing a lot of time in the low-speed corners and, in addition, Verstappen complained that the rear axle of his car was very unstable.

And as predicted, this concern has now disappeared and the current championship leader will certainly be in the fight. Not to say that he is still the favourite for pole but the numbers speak for themselves this season.

In the case of Ferrari, Leclerc started FP3 with a very encouraging message to his race engineer of positive progress in the set-up approach of his SF24. Sainz also seemed very comfortable with the Ferrari and the Italian team has its two drivers as candidates for pole.

However, the Spanish driver has that extra motivation this weekend to achieve the sixth P1 of his career in qualifying and the first of this season. On the other hand, McLaren, without making much noise, is still in the fight for the top positions as usual since the Miami GP.

This weekend, Lando Norris seems to have a slight advantage over Oscar Piastri, but the Australian will probably wake up in time for qualifying because as we have seen in the top speeds, the Papaya team has not pushed its engine to the maximum.

Ferrari and McLaren have opted for two different set-up philosophies, both looking for the best compromise between top speed and downforce level. In this respect, Ferrari, who are very comfortable with their mechanical grip and aero level, have prioritised a bit more straight line speed.

In general, the Italians take good care of their tyres at high temperatures, so they are not so worried about increasing their downforce level ahead of the race.

As usual, McLaren has a lower top speed, but a high level of downforce. In this sense, they are able to have a slight advantage over Ferrari in the corners, but then lose some ground on the straights. Looking ahead to the race, this setup is also a good choice for them. Minimal differences but different approaches in search of pole position and victory on Sunday.

In the case of Red Bull, as mentioned in the top speed charts, Verstappen has lost about 5-6 km/h of top speed compared to Friday in order to solve his aero problems at the rear of his car. Thanks to the RB20’s high straight line efficiency, the Dutchman was able to minimise these losses with a great slow and, especially, fast corner speed as evidenced in Turn 9 before the back straight.

All in all, we are in for a very exciting qualifying session in which anyone can take pole position. The details are minimal and a degree of more or less on the rear tyres in the final corners can be decisive. The battle between Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren is on: Carlos Sainz at home soil, Verstappen at the venue of his first victory, Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri, any Mercedes driver? Place your bets!

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