France edges back from the far-right brink

In France, the calamity of a far-right government has been averted for now. But the future threat is far from vanquished. The surprise third place for Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN) in the second round of parliamentary voting, when it had seemed after the first in reach of an absolute majority, reflected the ability of Emmanuel Macron’s centrists and the new leftist alliance to mobilise once again a “Republican Front” to block RN candidates.

With no group holding a majority, however, damaging political paralysis now threatens one of Europe’s biggest economies — which RN could exploit to present itself as the only alternative before presidential elections in 2027. Unless the Macronists, who recovered to finish the second largest party, and the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP), which finished first, can muster the same spirit of co-operation to form a viable government, what Le Pen called a “temporary” setback could prove exactly that.

Sunday’s turnaround stalled the momentum the RN has enjoyed since sharply increasing its parliamentary presence in elections in 2022. It trounced Macron’s centrist alliance in last month’s European parliament elections, then picked up an unprecedented one in three votes in the first round of the snap parliamentary poll.

Despite its third place in the second round, the RN is nonetheless a strengthened force. It is the largest single party, as opposed to bloc or alliance, in the parliament. It will now receive millions of euros in additional state financing. And either a protracted power vacuum or a destabilising, tax-and-spend leftwing government could play into its hands.

The process of forming the next government and nominating a prime minister should be driven by parliamentary leaders including Macron’s now caretaker prime minister, Gabriel Attal, and former centre-right premier Édouard Philippe, who has called for a centrist coalition. Given the polarising figure he has become, Macron would be better advised to remain above the fray.

Despite lacking a majority, the leftwing NFP may hope to form a minority government. Though Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s far-left France Unbowed (LFI) is its biggest constituent, the combined strength of the socialists, greens and communists should ensure the radical anti-capitalist Mélenchon does not become premier. The NFP would surely have to tone down its populist, high-spending programme in order to govern — the apparent assumption in sanguine financial markets — and might well not last long. But a leftwing government would provide a bumpy “cohabitation” with Macron as president, and could still do a lot of damage to French finances in a short time. France has withstood shortlived socialist experiments in the past, but is in far worse shape to do so now.

Far preferable would be a moderate coalition of the centre and centre-left — shorn of LFI and with a much-diluted version of the NFP programme — and/or the centre-right, which could ensure France remains a stable and predictable partner for the world’s major democracies. Though difficult to manage, a grand coalition might avoid blowing up French finances and provide less of an opening for the RN. It is hard to see in practice, though, how such a deal could be achieved. A technocratic government, of which France has no history, seems even less likely.

What is vital is that France’s centrist and leftwing groups avoid the kind of inward-looking squabbling and failure to compromise that would restore momentum to the RN. If the far-right threat in France is to be vanquished, new forces will need to emerge that can lead a rebuilding and realignment of both the centre-left and centre-right. The front républicain managed to hold in this election. It may not do so next time.