Fact or Fiction: Miami will win the Florida state recruiting title
Rivals national recruiting analyst John Garcia Jr. is joined by Jason Higdon of 1standTenFlorida.com, Pat Burnham of TheOsceola.com and Marcus Benjamin of CanesCounty.com to tackle three topics and determine whether they believe each statement is FACT or FICTION.
MORE FACT OR FICTION: Michael Carroll will be Alabama's biggest rankings riser
*****
CLASS OF 2025 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
CLASS OF 2026 RANKINGS: Rivals250 | Team | Position | State
TRANSFER PORTAL: Full coverage | Player ranking | Team ranking | Transfer search | Transfer Tracker
*****
1. Florida will sign a high school quarterback in the class of 2025.
Higdon: FACT. The player who seems to make the most sense is Florida State commitment Tramell Jones and his relationship with wide receiver Vernell Brown III. If the Gators can turn things around and get to eight or so wins, Jones will be the guy in the class. However, if the Gators cannot come up with a winning season, he will stick with his current pledge to the Seminoles.
Garcia: FACT. I tend to take the player's word when they shut things down so that would rule out a Jones flip from Florida State to Florida. It doesn't mean flip quarterback candidates elsewhere will fare the same way, however, as there are plenty of factors that can change the tune of a recruitment once the season comes.
I agree with Jason on this one, the 2024 campaign will result in the usual quarterback carousel at the end of the cycle and the thought of the Gators building around DJ Lagway will be enough to entice late action.
The state of North Carolina could be in play with Duke commit Dan Mahan and North Carolina commit Bryce Baker, but that's a story for the fall. The other scenario is that Florida's own transition reshuffles the board all-together and/or a late in-state riser becomes the bridge between Lagway and blue-chip 2026 arm Will Griffin.
*****
2. Florida State will sign multiple four-star linebackers in the 2025 class.
Burnham: FACT. It would be really easy after missing out on the commitments of Gavin Nix, Zaydrius Rainey-Sale and Tavion Wallace to say Florida State will not land two or more four-star or above linebackers but there is still a lot of time between now and early National Signing Day in December. I still like FSU's chances of flipping Wallace because winning sells and the Seminoles are likely to have a much better season than Arkansas. And with the Hogs under pressure to show marked improvement over last season, if Arkansas struggles early and pressure builds in Fayetteville on Sam Pittman, Wallace could be back in play before the season ends.
Florida State is scheduled to get Ohio State linebacker commit Tarvos Alford on-campus for an official visit in the fall. Ty Jackson is still uncommitted, but they need to get him on-campus sooner rather than later to get back in the ballgame. Mantrez Walker is another four-star linebacker Florida State could circle back to. He is committed to Colorado right now and who knows whether or not Deion Sanders will stay in place as the Buffaloes' head coach after both of his sons exhaust their eligibility this fall.
Winning is still the biggest tool when it comes to recruiting and I expect FSU will do a lot of it this fall which should help the Seminoles land at least one more four-star LB to this class.
Garcia: FACT. The Seminoles have struck out beyond Ethan Prichard at the linebacker spot for the class of 2025, but the summer often provides some surprise on the recruiting trail. It's tough to imagine, especially with the expected success on the field this fall under Mike Norvell, Florida State won't trend up for some of these same names in the fall.
There is also a group of prospects in the state and beyond that can play their way into blue-chip status as the 2024 season – the most important evaluation for the senior class – gets going. Wallace and Alford each look like potential flip candidates in the region on the front end, at a minimum.
*****
3. Miami will win the Florida state recruiting title for the class of 2025.
Benjamin: FACT. Miami currently ranks ninth in the Rivals.com Team Recruiting Rankings after its most recent commitment, SJ Alofaituli, announced his pledge to the Hurricanes on Friday.
The Hurricanes have a sizable gap between their rivals Florida and Florida State. The Seminoles rank 35th and the Gators rank 72nd in the nation. The Seminoles have 10 commits, and the Gators have only eight pledges, which means tremendous ground can be made with the two programs, but Miami is certainly not done yet.
The Hurricanes are in contention for several blue-chip talents, and many are highly considering Miami. DJ Pickett, Jaboree Antione, Jarquez Carter, Byron Louis and Aidan Anding are just a few prospects with Miami in their top list, so it's hard to imagine the other two of the big three of Florida catching up.
The only chance the Miami rivals have is hoping the Hurricanes falter during the season. If the Hurricanes produce another mediocre season, the Gators and Seminoles may have a chance to gain ground, but by then, it may be too late.
Garcia: FICTION. This thing is very close. Miami has the top class right now and will likely hold that spot into the fall, but Florida State is looming. The Seminoles only have 10 verbal commitments at the moment, compared with 17 for the Hurricanes.
Per pledge, Florida State's 4.1 average star rating paces the country – much less the state. Mike Norvell's group does not have a three-star on board at the moment and of course plenty of targets are still in play.
The biggest contention point between the two programs may fall during the season itself, where each is favored to work as an ACC contender in the coming months. The difference is that the Seminoles have been there under its current staff and Miami is working toward it. Should that situation replay in the fall, it could be the Seminoles that boom on the recruiting trail as a result.
Eyes will be most centered in Gainesville in the fall, relative to any potential coaching changes in the state, so the fallout from there could provide the final jolt one way or the other between the ACC pair.