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The Vickers Top Insider Picks is a daily report that utilizes a proprietary algorithm to identify 25 companies with compelling insider purchase histories based on transactions over the past three months.

J.M. Smucker is a packaged food company that primarily sells through the US retail channel (78% of fiscal 2024 revenue came through its retail pet foods, coffee, and frozen handheld/spreads segments), with the remaining share consisting of Hostess and international (primarily Canada). Retail coffee is its largest category (33% of sales) with brands Folgers and Dunkin’. Pet foods (22% of sales) holds leading brands like Milk-Bone and Meow Mix. Of its remaining, approximately 22% comes from consumer foods, primarily peanut butter and jelly, through brands Jif and Smucker’s. The company acquired Hostess Brands in fiscal 2024 to boost its snack and convenience store presence.

BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings owns BJ's Wholesale Club, which operates a chain of warehouse clubs in the Eastern U.S. BJ's positions itself between traditional grocery stores and warehouses like Sam's Club and Costco, and offers a wider range of items and smaller pack sizes than Costco and Sam's. The company posted total revenue of $20 billion in FY24, which ended on February 3, 2024. Income from membership fees represented 2.2% of total revenue and 53% of operating income. The company sells name-brand merchandise and food to members, who are small business owners and consumers. Based in Westborough, Massachusetts, the company also offers specialty services, including tire installation, optical services, and photo developing. At the end of FY24, the company operated 244 BJ's clubs and 175 gas stations in 20 states. More than half of the clubs are in four states: New York, Florida, Massachusetts, and New Jersey. About 23% of FY24 sales were generated in the New York City metro area (down from 25% in FY21 and FY20). Clubs range from 44,000 to 177,000 square feet. BJ's sells a relatively narrow assortment of approximately 7,000 SKUs, which it plans to trim to about 6,000 to improve inventory turnover. Groceries represented 70% of the company's FY24 net sales (67% in FY23, 71% in FY22); general merchandise and services accounted for 11% in FY24, and 12% in FY23 and 14% in FY22 and gasoline rose to 21% in FY23 from 15% in FY22 and 9% in FY21. Gas was 19% of sales in FY24. A predecessor company, BJ's Wholesale Club, traded as a public company until it was acquired on September 30, 2011 by an investor group led by Leonard Green & Partners and CVC Capital. On July 2, 2018, the company again went public as BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings on the NYSE. CVC and Leonard Green held no shares when the company published its FY21 annual report. The company's fiscal year ends on the Saturday closest to January 31. The convention at Argus, Bloomberg, and other data service providers is to number the fiscal year based on the calendar year in which it ends. BJ's current fiscal year has 52 weeks and will end on February 1, 2025. We thus call the current year FY25 while the company calls it FY24.

Monday Tee Up: Inflation, Powell, Banks This will be a busy week, with fresh inflation data being released, Fed Chairman Powell testifying before Congress, and the new earnings season kicking off with the big banks reporting. As well, Wall Street will continue to analyze the June jobs report that showed some cooling in the labor market. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.5%, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq was higher by 2.8%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is higher by 4%, the S&P is up 17%, and the Nasdaq has popped 22%. On the economic calendar, Fed Chairman Powell will be grilled by Washington lawmakers about the state of the economy as part of his semiannual update. On Tuesday, he testifies before the Senate; on Wednesday, he moves over to the House. On Thursday, Wall Street will get new inflation data in the form of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In May, CPI printed at 3.3% and Core CPI was 3.4%. Argus forecasts that CPI for June will be 3.1% and Core CPI will edge up to 3.5%. On Friday, more inflation data is due from the wholesale side via the Producer Price Index and Consumer Sentiment reports. On the earnings calendar, the new reporting season kicks off. On Thursday, we hear from Delta Air Lines, PepsiCo, and Conagra Brands. On Friday, major banks start to check in, with the likes of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of New York, and Wells Fargo all reporting. Steve Biggar, Argus' Director of Financial Institutions Research, offers the following thoughts. 'We expect profits from lending businesses to remain under pressure as higher interest rates continue to negatively impact loan growth, and loss provisions remain elevated in a slowing economy -- meaning regional banks likely will have a tougher quarter than the larger global banks. Capital markets should be a bright spot, resulting in good profit gains for JPMorgan and Citigroup, as well as Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs. Fees from bond underwriting, initial public offerings, and merger & acquisition advisory have all improved after some two-years of weak activity, aided by growing confidence about the Federal Reserve's pivot to lower interest rates and a soft economic landing.' Last week, the June jobs report showed some slight cracks in the tight labor market. Nonfarm Payrolls printed at 206,000, slightly below the results from May. The Unemployment Rate inched up to 4.1% in June. The Fed expected to see this number because of the strain on the economy from higher interest rates. Mortgage rates ticked up to 6.95% last week for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose four cents to $3.48 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 1.5%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator currently forecasts 3.16% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision is on July 31, with odds at 8% for a rate cut. By the mid-September meeting, odds jump to 77%. By November 7, odds hit 88% and for December 18, odds hit 96%. Argus forecasts that the Fed will cut interest rates twice this year, with two more rate cuts in 2025.