Second-quarter earnings season kicks off this week, with PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines reporting before the open on Thursday, and J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of New York Mellon, and Fastenal reporting before the open on Friday. It is also "inflation" week, with June CPI and Initial Claims at 8:30am on Thursday, June PPI at 8:30am on Friday, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am Friday. Of note, the CBOE FedWatch Tool is showing a 71% chance that the Fed cuts 25 basis points (bps) at the September 18 meeting and a 74% probability of 50+ bps cut by the end of 2024. The S&P 500 (SPX) has been remarkably tranquil even though only a handful of stocks are propelling the index higher. The SPX has now gone 345 trade days without a daily 2% drop, according to Carson Investment Research. One would think that we are overdue, but there have been periods when this kind of calm market has persisted for much longer. The last time we saw this much calm was back in 2016 to 2018, when the SPX went 351 days without a big dip. Prior to that, and the longest streak since 1950, was the 2003-2007 period, when the SPX we