Wednesday was a tough day for mega-cap indices, especially those with a heavy Information Technology component. Semiconductors were slammed again and it looks like the latest rally off the lows since April 19 is complete. The Nasdaq dropped 2.5%, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) lost 2.7%, and the S&P 500, S&P 100, and S&P 400 all fell between 1% and 1.3%. Small-caps outperformed once again, with the Russell 2000 off only 0.7% and the S&P SmallCap 600 down only a fraction. Semiconductor indices all plunged 6% or more. The iShares Semi ETF (SOXX) fell very close to its low from the latter part of June and lost its 21-day exponential average for the first time in three months. The ETF did not quite reach its 50-day average, but the major losses were accompanied by very heavy volume. The 5- and 13-day moving average crossover almost reversed its bullish cross from early May. The VanEck Semi ETF (SMH) did see a minor 5/13 bearish cross, as did the DJ U.S. Semi Index. Since June 20, the semis have generated five distribution days (big losses on an increase in volume or above-average volume). A cluster like that is certainly a warning of an intermediate-term top. We have also seen five or six distribution days on the QQQ since June 20. Renewable Energy, Electronic Equipment, and Electrical Components & Equipment also hurt Information Technology. Consumer Discretionary (-1.7%), Communication Services (-1.5%), and Industrials (-1.1%) also had tough days. Consumer Staples led with a 1.3% gain, Energy was up 1%, and Financial and Real Estate rose 0.7%. Buckle your seat belts, it's getting stormy out there. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.

This is an important week for the financial markets, as the economic calendar is loaded with key inflation data. The May CPI is out on Wednesday, the May PPI on Thursday, and the May Import Price Index on Friday. We also have an FOMC interest-rate decision (nothing expected) and Chairman Powell's press conference. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the next real chance for Fed action is at the September 18 meeting, where the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) cut is 45% versus 51% for no action. Both of the last two meetings in 2024 (11/7 and 12/18) show a higher probability that the fed funds rate will be cut by 25 bps, targeting the 5%-5.25% range.

This pick list highlights constituents of the Morningstar US Large Cap Index that we believe offer investors the best risk-adjusted return prospects. Stocks of large-cap companies where neither growth nor value characteristics predominate. Stocks in the top 70% of the capitalization of the U.S. equity market are defined as large cap.